A poll conducted by San Francisco-based Change Research in April has former Gov. Jim McGreevey leading a six-person Jersey City mayoral race that isn’t until next fall, with 34 percent of respondents unsure.
By John Heinis/Hudson County View
A portion of poll, which went out to 409 Jersey City voters between April 16th and April 23rd, obtained by HCV shows that McGreevey was selected by 32 percent of people asked the following question:
“If the 2025 election for Mayor of Jersey City were held today, which would you consider voting for? Choose all that apply.”
Hudson County Commissioner Bill O’Dea (D-2), was in second place with 19 percent, followed by Ward E Councilman James Solomon with 16 percent, though the downtown councilman is yet to declare his intentions for the November 4th non-partisan race.
Council President Joyce Watterman, another declared mayoral candidate, came in at nine percent, with Councilman-at-Large Daniel Rivera and Hudson County Commissioner Jerry Walker (D-3) at eight and seven percent, respectively.
Neither Rivera or Walker, who is currently running for Congress in the 10th District, haven’t publicly declared any plans for 2025 as of this writing.
The most common answer was actually “I wouldn’t consider any of these candidates,” which was selected by 34 percent of respondents.
“Clearly, O’Dea has not grown in the last nine months of his campaign, while in fact, McGreevey has. Bill shouldn’t be walking his supporters off a cliff,” a high-ranking elected official told HCV under the condition of anonymity.
On the other hand, O’Dea said the poll does not paint a pretty picture for McGreevey, noting that while 86 percent of respondents know who he is, his favorability-unfavorability ratio sitting at 29-26.
“The poll doesn’t show McGreevey is strong at all, he has no potential for growth. If Solomon and I join forces, it’s game over,” the commissioner said.
As a basis of comparison, 33 percent of respondents said that had never heard of O’Dea, with his favorability-unfavorability ratio being 22-15.
Solomon posted similar numbers: 35 percent of respondents did not know him, with a favorability-unfavorability ratio of 19-13. He declined to comment on the poll.
71 percent of respondents indicated they follow Jersey City politics and government closely, with 74 percent indicating they will “definitely” vote in the November 2025 election (12 more percent said “probably”).
The Change Research product also indicates that at least one question went beyond the Jersey City mayor’s race, asking for favorability for federal and statewide candidates, including President Joe Biden (R) and former President Donald Trump (D).
55 percent of respondents said they would vote for Biden, while 21 percent said they’re voting for Trump, with 24 percent declaring they’re unsure.
The three declared gubernatorial candidates, Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, and former Senate President Steve Sweeney also had their name ID and favorability tested, as did two potential candidates in U.S. Reps. Josh Gottheimer (D-5) and Mikie Sherrill (D-11).
Sweeney, Gottheimer, and Sherrill all had over 40 percent of respondents saying they hadn’t heard of them, while Fulop had the worst favorabilty-unfavorability ratio of 28-48 with 95 percent of respondents recognizing him.
McGreevey’s most recent filing with the New Jersey Election Law Enforcement Commission (NJ ELEC) on April 17th did not have an expenditure for the poll, so it is not immediately clear who paid for it.
Rebovich Institute of New Jersey Political Director Micah Rasmussen said that if the poll was truly overwhelmingly positive for McGreevey, its full contents would have been released by now, before highlighting other observations.
“After Biden, Trump, the Menendezes, Phil Murphy and Steve Fulop, Jim McGreevey is the best-known public official in the poll. More than double the respondents say they’ve never heard of Bill O’Dea, James Solomon and Joyce Watterman. Three times as many respondents have never heard of Danny Rivera and Jerry Walker than McGreevey,” he said.
“So he is benefiting from his much higher name recognition. The other candidates can see, plain as day, what they need to do first — build their name recognition. With McGreevey’s higher name recognition, he’s also got to contend with more people who know enough about him to rate him unfavorably. He’s got more unfavorables than any other potential contender in the mayoral field.”
He continued that while this poll reflected a six-candidate field, he would be interested in seeing what a two- or three-person race looked like.
Shame. Have people forgotten that he’s a crook who violated the public trust and cheated on his wife? I’m all for his private redemption, but he doesn’t deserve to be mayor of Jersey City.
Being a national infamous, disgraced, deceitful politician is probably good for name recognition this far out from the election. It is still questionable that he actually live in Jersey City or his multi-millionair, historic estate which is not in Jersey City.